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Subscribe Posts Tagged ‘Migration’
Interprovincial Migration to BC (no no it’s not boring!)
Tuesday, July 12th, 2011
Readers of my book and this blog will know that I have what is probably an unhealthy, or at least an unnatural, interest in migration patterns. But anyone who is interested in seniors housing markets, or indeed any other kind of housing market, should pay close attention to who is moving where and for what reason. We just finished a market analysis in Saskatoon. Interprovincial and international migration to Saskatoon has been positive (ie in-migration has exceeded out-migration) for about 4 years now, after at least 40 years of more people leaving than moving in. The impact of that on almost every aspect of life in Saskatoon has been, if not quite profound, certainly noticeable.
Which, then brings me to BC. Immigration from other countries to BC is fairly constant from one year to the next. And almost all immigrants settle in the Lower Mainland, so it is a factor of less interest to other communities. Interprovincial migration on the other hand is hugely variable and affects communities throughout the province. Contrary to the urban myth that BC is a giant magnet for retirees, almost all interprovincial migration depends on economic conditions in BC compared to our eastern neighbours, particularly Alberta.
It sounds simplistic but it really isn’t—when interprovincial migration to BC is positive, things are good. When it’s negative, things are bad.
That’s why it was alarming to see in BC Stat’s First Quarter 2011report on interprovincial migration that for the first time in 9 years, quarterly migration has been negative. The report cautions that numbers are preliminary but states: “we can be reasonably assured that interprovincial migration to BC appears to be trending down”.
That is a sobering thought. In future posts we will talk about the sub-provincial impacts of these changes. As readers of my book know, great information on inter-, intra- and international migration trends is available from your friends at the Canada Revenue Agency. Your friends at Lumina Services pay close attention to this information in our unceasing search for the truth.
Tags: Aging, Housing Market, Migration, Seniors' Housing
Posted in Future, Housing Market, Seniors' Housing | Comments Off
CKNW Interview
Monday, June 27th, 2011
For all you non-Vancouverites following our blog, CKNW is the # 1 rated talk radio show in the region. I just did an interview with Jill Bennett, one of the hosts on the station. Before the interview started I was thinking about interesting ways to talk about the numbers—how our population is aging and what that really means. For example, the Vancouver metropolitan area is expected to grow by 1 million people between now and 2035. That’s a pretty interesting number in itself (where are they all going to live you might reasonably ask) but what is more interesting is that fully 40% of those 1 million people will be over the age of 65.
What does that really mean though? The fact is that there are lots of communities that already have much higher proportions of their population over the age of 65 than Vancouver will have in 2035 (22%). For example, Parksville-Qualicum at 33%, or Penticton at 24%. If you visit Penticton you do not get the sense that it is overrun with seniors. Parksville-Qualicum is a little different, partly because it is quite a lot smaller than Penticton. I know people who decided to retire in Nanaimo rather than Parksville-Qualicum because they got frustrated in grocery stores by slower-moving shoppers. Just imagine though what life would be like in Sun City Arizona, where 80% of the population is over the age of 65.
Tags: Aging, Aging population, Baby Boomers, British Columbia, demographics, Migration, Population, Seniors, Seniors' Housing
Posted in Future, News, Seniors' Housing | Comments Off
Going with the flow: interstate elderly migration, 1970-2000
Friday, November 12th, 2010
As regular readers of this blog know, I have an unhealthy interest in migratory patterns of seniors. A recent article in the Journals of Gerontology (Volume 65B #5, November 2010) focuses on elderly migration in the US over the period from 1970 to 2000, specifically, on interstate migration. The article compares migration trends based on Census data to those based on so-called PUMS (public use micro-samples) data, which rely on much smaller samples than the Census data.
The analysis supports other US research findings that interstate elderly migration has been remarkably stable since 1970. In geographic terms, Florida and California declined in popularity over the 1970-2000 period while Nevada, Georgia, and the Carolinas increased in popularity.
The 2000 US Census found that 4.1% of the 65+ population in the US moved from one state to another between the 1995 Census and the 2000 Census. As my book The Future of Seniors’ Housing: Planning, Building and Operating Successful Seniors Housing Projects points out, the comparable Canadian rate for interprovincial migration (between 2001 and 2006) was 6%.
Sadly, as we have discussed in several previous posts, our knowledge of migration patterns among the 65+ population is about to come to a screeching halt thanks to the Harper government decision to cancel the 2011 long form Census.
Tags: 2011 Canadian Census, 2011 Census, British Columbia, Housing Market, Migration, Mobility, Seniors, Seniors' Housing
Posted in Future, Market Studies, Seniors' Housing | Comments Off
Sarah Palin School of Public Policy: Stephen Harper, Tony Clement and the 2011 Census
Thursday, July 22nd, 2010
The furor over the 2011 Census reminds me of Sarah Palin claiming she understood international relations because she could see Russia from her front door. That is how all of us will have to operate in the future—without benefit of actual facts guiding our decisions.
I have noted in past posts how we rely on data from the long form to analyze seniors’ housing markets, including data on income and housing. I haven’t noted though how often we rely on mobility data to understand demographic patterns affecting markets and communities. Data from the long form tells us how many people of various age groups lived at the same address five years earlier, how many lived in another community in the same province, and how many lived in another province.
Well that is just downright intrusive, Tony Clement and Stephen Harper would no doubt say. But of course it isn’t intrusive and the data helps us to avoid mistakes. In my forthcoming book I mention the case of a former client of ours who was planning to build a big seniors’ housing project in the interior of British Columba. He was sure that people from all over Canada would flock to the community, partly because his site was in BC, an assumed magnet for seniors, and partly because it was a good site, right behind the Tim Horton’s. We were able to show him, based on long form data, that his assumption was mistaken and that the prospects for his site were not good.
Normally it is a delicate matter to tell someone that their plan isn’t a sound one but this client was far from perturbed. “You have saved me millions of dollars”, he said, and that is true.
The lack of long form data in so many areas of the Canadian economy and Canadian society is going to be an extremely costly, as well as a futile, exercise.
Tags: 2011 Census, Developers, Household Income, Housing Development, Housing Market, Market Study, Migration, Mobility, Sarah Palin, Seniors' Housing, Stephen Harper
Posted in Future, Marketing, Seniors' Housing | Comments Off
2011 Census (Reprise)
Wednesday, July 14th, 2010
As the government is still persisting in its wrong-headed plans to ruin the 2011 Census, I thought it would be useful to explain in a little more depth why the Census information is so critical for seniors’ housing analysis.
Here is an example of a table we always use when we are doing a market study or a community housing needs assessment. Here are just a few of the things this table tells us:
- 83% of the 55+ households in this community are homeowners.
- The average income of the renters is $38,509 compared to $73,094 for the owners.
- Single (non-family) renters over the age of 85 have the lowest average incomes.
- Although not shown in the table, the detailed data indicate that there are 565 renter households aged 65+ in this community with an income lower than $14,999. These are the households facing serious challenges in terms of meeting their housing needs.
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Owners |
Renters |
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Family Hshlds |
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Non-Family |
Family Hshlds |
Non-Family |
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Total |
Avg Inc |
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Total |
Avg Inc |
Total |
Avg Inc |
Total |
Avg Inc |
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55-64 |
4,880 |
$101,729 |
|
1,030 |
$47,153 |
600 |
$61,629 |
510 |
$30,613 |
|
65-74 |
2,450 |
$67,633 |
|
815 |
$36,961 |
220 |
$41,969 |
405 |
$28,178 |
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75-84 |
1,140 |
$63,158 |
|
1,030 |
$32,375 |
125 |
$35,366 |
265 |
$26,375 |
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85+ |
200 |
$50,621 |
|
255 |
$24,358 |
60 |
$47,584 |
235 |
$24,220 |
Sadly, we will never have this level of knowledge about seniors’ housing markets in future years because all of this information comes from the long form.
For-profit and not-for-profit developers, communities, governments, market analysts—we will all be forced to guess what is going on. Tragic.
Tags: 2011 Canadian Census, Aging, Census Data, Household Income, Housing Market, Market Study, Migration, Mobility, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing, Seniors' Incomes
Posted in Future, Market Studies, News, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing | Comments Off
Migrating Seniors (reprise)
Thursday, May 6th, 2010
My last post discussed the surprising fact that Alberta attracts and retains more interprovincial migrants over the age of 65 than BC. Those migrating seniors are part of the 20% of the 65+ age group that moved between the last two censuses. Not all moved interprovincially of course—in fact, many more moved within the same province. To take BC as an example, for every 100 people over the age of 65 who moved between 2001 and 2006:
- 49 moved within the same city or town;
- 36 moved within BC;
- 10 moved from a different province;
- 5 moved from another country.
The proportions were almost exactly the same for younger BC seniors (55 to 64), which is interesting because that group contains many leading edge boomers. The expectation among many industry observers is that baby boomers will behave differently from older generations, but that expectation has yet to materialize in mobility patterns.
Generally speaking, the older people get the more likely they are to stay close to home. More people over the age of 75 move within the same city or town than other age groups, and fewer move between provinces. We might expect then that younger seniors would be more inclined than older seniors to move from province to province, but that’s not what happened, between 2001 and 2006.
One of the reasons for this is probably the snowbird phenomenon—people don’t move from province to province because they go away for six months every year. A far greater proportion of American seniors move from state to state: they’ve got all kinds of warm places to move to. Canadians have South Western British Columbia, milder than the rest of the country to be sure, but it’s not Arizona!
Tags: Aging, Migration, Retirement, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing, snow birds
Posted in Future, Senior Housing | Comments Off
Alberta, not BC, is Canada’s Retirement Magnet for Seniors
Tuesday, May 4th, 2010
Here is a chart that surprises almost everyone who sees it. Over the 10 year period between 1998 and 2008, Alberta attracted and retained considerably more interprovincial migrants than BC. The numbers come from Canada Revenue Agency records.
Interprovincial Migration of Seniors 1998 - 2008
Note that we are talking here about NET migration, in minus out. The net figures are interesting but the detailed in and out comparisons are just as interesting, perhaps even more so. As an example, about the same number of people moved to BC and Alberta over this period, but more left BC than left Alberta.
We will return to the subject in later posts but after having spent a great deal of time thinking about this apparent conundrum, we have come to the conclusion that the two major reasons for the ascendancy of Alberta are 1) much greater job creation, at least until the recent recession and 2) lower cost of living. Of course seniors aren’t moving to Alberta in search of jobs, but their kids (and grandkids) are. As for the cost of living, we have charted some amazing differences between the two provinces but overall, it’s probably about 25% cheaper to live in Alberta than in BC if you are over the age of 65.
Tags: Aging, Aging in place, Alberta, British Columbia, Migration, Retirement, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing
Posted in Senior Housing | Comments Off