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Seniors’ Housing Projects: Location, Location, Location–How Important is it Really?
Thursday, July 15th, 2010
Conventional wisdom suggests that for supportive seniors’ housing projects (meals, housekeeping, laundry etc), walking-distance proximity to stores and services is, if not essential, then at the very least extremely important. But without sitting down and doing the math, I would say that a minority of supportive seniors’ housing projects in BC are located close enough to stores and services so that people could easily walk to them. Some are in locations that are downright pastoral. Of course walking isn’t necessary for all people—many have scooters that enlarge their geographic boundaries. Scooters though are used by a small minority of seniors, meaning that walking distance is more important than scooter distance.
As well, many seniors’ housing projects have their own buses to take people around to shopping and doctors’ appointments, many have small tuck shops that sell various items, and in any case, most meals are provided on site. So why do people need to walk anywhere? I firmly believe that the answer to that question is this: even if people don’t have to walk anywhere, the fact that they could if they wanted to is an important psychological benefit. And for those people who actually do walk to the store or the bank, it’s more than just a psychological benefit—it’s a physical benefit as well.
Proximity to green space seems to be less important than proximity to stores and services. It’s always nice to have a park to walk through but half the time the weather may preclude the walk. But proximity to schools and other places where children play is almost always considered a decided advantage because it gives people something highly enjoyable to watch. Proximity to seniors’ centres is hugely advantageous, not just because it allows residents to participate in outside events and activities, but because it facilitates two-way interaction. It’s easy to invite people living in the community and using the seniors’ centre to come for meals and events at the housing project, which is one of the very best ways of keeping buildings full. Easy access to public transportation falls into the “it goes without saying” category, whether or not people living in supportive housing projects ever actually take a city bus. Visitors might though and staff almost certainly will.
Of course finding sites that are close to stores, services, schools, public transit, and seniors’ centres is much easier said than done. When “affordably priced” is added to the list, finding a suitable site begins to verge on the miraculous, especially in centres where land is expensive.
Tags: Aging, Aging in place, Assisted Living, Developers, Housing Development, Housing Market, Housing Options, Independent Living, Mobility, Retirement, Seniors' Housing, Supportive housing
Posted in Seniors' Housing | No Comments »
Lowest and Highest Incomes in Canada for 65+ Households
Wednesday, July 7th, 2010
Note that this is the last time we will be able to discuss this issue, thanks to the Conservatives’ completely bone-headed and inexplicable decision to gut the 2011 Census. No other country in the world runs its Census the way Canada does, or will in 2011. It is a tragic mistake that will take years to correct. I have written to Tony Clement, the Minister who decided to gut the Census, Stephen Harper, my MP, the Globe and Mail, and all of my colleagues who rely on Census data to make sense of our world and I encourage you to do the same. I am surprised the outcry hasn’t been louder. It’s not just the seniors’ housing field that will be severely impacted of course. Please do what you can.
So for the last time for a long time, here are average incomes and rates of homeownership for 65+ households across the country. The lowest incomes are in Newfoundland and Labrador and the highest in Ontario. The proportion of homeowners is fairly similar throughout the country except for Quebec, which has a much higher incidence of renting across all age groups compared to other provinces. It’s interesting that Manitoba is the only other province with a homeownership ratio in the 60s, although average incomes are higher than the national average and house prices are comparatively affordable. Why would that be so? The only thing I can think of is that the incidence of life lease is relatively high in Manitoba. Unlike all other provinces, life lease residents are considered renters in Manitoba so that might explain the lower incidence of homeownership.
Tags: Aging, Home Ownership, Household Income, Housing Market, Housing Options, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing, Seniors' Incomes
Posted in News, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing | No Comments »
Disability Rates: Do they Mean Anything?
Friday, July 2nd, 2010
Understanding disability rates and how they affect housing market behavior, in particular moves to supportive housing or assisted living, is a very difficult thing to do. Statistics Canada tells us that 43% of the 65+ population in Canada have some degree of disability, primarily mobility, agility, pain, or hearing. Of those with disabilities, 60% are mildly or moderately disabled, while 40% have severe or very severe disabilities. What “mild”, “moderate”, and “severe” mean is not easy to define. Statistics Canada uses a complicated rating system to categorize disabilities. At any rate, the question is how these disability rates affect housing market behavior.
To establish a context for his discussion, it’s useful to reflect on the fact that the huge majority of houses in Canada are neither “visitable” nor “accessible”, meaning they do not accommodate aging in place. So does this mean that when people become disabled in some way will they move to supportive housing? Maybe not all people, or even a majority of people, but some quantifiable proportion? Alas, no. We know that entrance into service-enriched housing such as supportive housing or assisted living is primarily need-driven, which means that people move into these types of environments not because they want to but because they have to. However that does not necessarily imply the presence of a disability—people may move because their spouse died and they are afraid to stay alone, or because they are isolated, or not eating properly, or because they have lost their driver’s license. And couples with disabilities are much less likely to move to supportive housing than individuals because they are able to help each other. If there were some way to quantify demand based on disability status we would have to adjust for the number of couples in a market area, which would further complicate an already suspect analysis.
As a result of all these confounding variables, in my view it is not possible to arrive at any conclusions at all about the demand for service-enriched housing in a community by applying national disability rates to the seniors’ population and assuming that some arbitrary proportion of that group will choose to move to service-enriched housing. Some market analysts do this I am sad to report. Be careful if you are working with one.
Tags: Aging, Aging in place, Assisted Living, Disability, Housing Market, Housing Options, Mobility, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing, Supportive housing, Universal design
Posted in Market Studies, Seniors' Housing | 1 Comment »
US Occupancy Rates have Declined in 11 of 12 Quarters Since 2007
Thursday, June 24th, 2010
As we have often commented in this blog, the US is light years away from Canada in terms of the quantity and quality of available research on the seniors’ housing and health care industry. The mission of the wonderful National Investment Center (NIC) is: “To advance the quality of seniors housing and care by facilitating informed investment decisions through best-in-class data, research, networking events and professional education” and they do a great job of that.
One of the many useful things they do is track occupancy data by quarter for five categories of housing and health care—freestanding IL, combined IL, freestanding AL, combined AL, and CCRC. (Remember that AL in the US is almost exclusively private pay).
A recent NIC Newsflash points out that occupancy rates for all five categories have declined more or less continuously since the first quarter of 2007, when they reached a cyclical peak of 92.3% (on average). First quarter 2010 data indicates an average occupancy rate of 88.0%.
Assisted living performed best over the period (decline of 2.7%) and freestanding IL the worst (decline of 6.2%). CCRCs ended up in the middle with a decline of 4.1%.
This is not remotely surprising. The US housing market has been hammered over the last few years. People more able to postpone a move into service-enriched housing (i.e. potential IL residents) have done exactly that.
Tags: Aging, Aging in place, Assisted Living, Housing Market, Housing Options, Independent Living, Occupancy Rates, Retirement, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing, snow birds, Supportive housing
Posted in Future, News, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing | No Comments »
Americans Moving to Canada in Search of More Affordable Seniors’ Housing and Health Care?
Tuesday, June 15th, 2010
I read a comment about this recently. The writer was hypothesizing that as costs for seniors’ housing and health care rise in the US, Americans might move to Canada or Mexico in search of more affordable alternatives.
In both cases (i.e. Canada and Mexico) the fly in the ointment for Americans actually contemplating such a move would be health care and immigration policies, but aside from that, are costs really cheaper in Canada? My first reaction was scepticism but upon re-reading a few brochures I picked up at the recent ALFA conference in Phoenix, I thought: “well, maybe it IS cheaper in Canada, at least for some types of housing and health care”.
For example, at the Forum at Desert Harbor, the daily rate for a private room in the long term care component of the campus is $280, which is to say just over $100,000 per year. There aren’t many private pay long term care facilities in Canada that are charging $280 per day.
But at the same time, the rate at the Forum for a two bedroom 922 square foot independent living apartment is only $2,868 per month (the meal package includes breakfast and one other meal). The Forum is an upscale project with lots of amenities including a lakefront location, a pool, and a grapefruit tree, to say nothing of that desert climate.
Americans would have a tough time finding a similar value in Canada. The trick at the Forum is obviously to stay out of long term care!
Tags: Aging, Aging in place, ALFA, Assisted Living, Housing Development, Housing Options, Independent Living, Migration, Rentals, Retirement, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing, Seniors' Housing Menus, snow birds, Supportive housing
Posted in Future, Seniors' Housing | No Comments »
What a Difference Four Years Makes
Thursday, June 10th, 2010
This week I am working in Stony Plain, a community of about 12,000 people 20 minutes west of the West Edmonton Mall, as these things are always described in the Edmonton area. It’s not where you are relative to downtown Edmonton, it’s where you are relative to the West Edmonton Mall.
On my way here I stopped off in Devon, a town of about 6,000 people midway between Stony Plain and the Edmonton International Airport. There are only 275 people over the age of 75 in Devon and yet there is a 61 unit supportive senior’s housing project (Discovery Place, The Heights) that has only one vacant unit. It is situations like this that keep market analysts humble.
But getting back to the topic of this blog, the current issue of the Edmonton Condo Guide includes a handy chart comparing year-to-date statistics for the four year period between April 2006 and April 2010. In terms of the sales-to-listing ratio, the trough over that period was in 2008, when the ratio was 37% compared to an astonishing 91% in 2006. Things have improved since 2008, but in the first four months of 2010 there were 12,365 listings on the Edmonton MLS compared to 5,645 sales. That’s a long way from the heady days of 2006—7,779 listings; 7,100 sales.
You can see the evidence of the hangover everywhere in Stony Plain. “Immediately available condos”, “condo units for rent”, “move in now”—signs like this are common. It’s nothing like Phoenix, but it is a bit unsettling all the same.
Tags: Advertsising, Age of entry, Aging, Alberta, Developers, Housing Options, Independent Living, Retirement, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing
Posted in Marketing, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing | No Comments »
What you could do if you had 808 units
Tuesday, June 1st, 2010
I toured Friendship Village in Tempe, AZ while attending the recent ALFA conference in Phoenix. It’s spread over 43 acres and has 575 independent living units (bungalows and apartments), 91 assisted living units, and 142 care beds. There’s a pool, a fully equipped fitness facility (very busy when we popped in at 10:30am), an auditorium, a library, woodworking shops, a billiards room, a 9,000 square foot recreation centre featuring rooms for dancing, weaving, ceramics, video editing, and stained glass, and three dining areas: a cafe that is open all day and looks exactly like a real cafe, a large buffet that’s likewise open all day, and a formal dining room that is open on a reservation basis at dinner time.
The first time I saw a buffet in operation at a new upscale project in Red Deer I was taken aback because of what I assumed would be the difficulty of dealing with a buffet if you had a walker or were just generally unsteady on your feet. But people at Friendship Village seemed to manage just fine – they put their food on the seat of the walker, or staff there was around to help. And it’s worth noting that at breakfast or lunch it’s the buffet or the café and that’s it – no table service is available, which is interesting in itself. Do people stay independent longer if you force them to retrieve their own breakfast and lunch from a buffet?
Aside from the array of amenities you can offer if you have 808 units, the other advantage is that there are people everywhere – in the cafe, in the buffet, in the pool, in the fitness centre. It’s lively! It’s hard to achieve the same ambience if you’ve only got 100 units or so and it’s impossible to offer the same array of amenities. But that doesn’t mean you have to resign yourself to sepulchral silence and meals in the dining room at precisely 11:30 and 4:30. Au contraire – stay tuned for ideas.
Tags: Aging, ALFA, Assisted Living, Housing Development, Housing Options, Independent Living, Retirement, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing, Seniors' Housing Menus, Supportive housing
Posted in Future, Seniors' Housing | No Comments »
Fine Dining in Long Term Care: A Contradiction in Terms?
Thursday, May 27th, 2010
Not in Phoenix! Or indeed all over the USA where fine dining in long term care is a definite trend. I toured a state-of-the-art not-for-profit skilled nursing facility in nearby Tempe AZ on Monday. I was profoundly impressed. The goal of the owner of the facility, Friendship Village, was to retain the ambience of a residential environment and avoid any feel of the institutional. Without question they achieved the goal. The hallways are gorgeous—no other word will do although it seems odd to describe a hallway as gorgeous. Unlike every other hallway I have seen in a care facility, they undulate. They are also carpeted, painted in beautiful colors, and highlighted with artwork and furniture at appropriate intervals. Doorways are recessed. The contrast with many independent living communities I am familiar with could not be starker.
The dining rooms blew me away too— linen tablecloths and napkins! And menu choices! And open eating hours! I don’t like to overdo the exclamation marks but the facility was really unlike anything I have ever seen.
“Ah but what does all this cost?” you are no doubt thinking. Friendship Village is a life care community—residents buy in at the independent living stage and whatever care they need beyond that stage is provided at the same monthly cost. For example, a one bedroom unit may cost $160,000 (assuming no return of capital) plus monthly fees of $2,300 (meals, housekeeping, laundry etc). If someone buying in at this level were ever to require skilled nursing care, they would continue to pay the same monthly fee they paid in independent living (adjusted for inflationary increases).
Tags: Aging, ALFA, Dining, Housing Development, Housing Options, Independent Living, Nursing Care, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing, Seniors' Housing Menus
Posted in Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing | Comments Off
Good Market Studies for Seniors’ Housing Projects can Save you Millions of Dollars; Bad ones can Cost you Millions of Dollars
Thursday, May 20th, 2010
Since one of Lumina’s business lines is market studies, it may sound self-serving for me to say that it is false economy of the worst kind to launch a real estate development project of any kind without doing a market study first. But very often, developers have great difficulty grasping the fundamental truth of this observation, partly because of personality. Lack of confidence is not a trait shared by many developers but it is easy to tip over the line from confidence to hubris. Even granting a solid understanding of a market on the part of a developer, a third party study is invaluable in terms of reducing risk and maximizing profitability. Lenders know this, which is why they are usually more likely to require a market study than a developer.
To make the matter more complicated, there are numerous ways for market studies to go off the rails, many of them not especially obvious to casual or uninformed observers, OR, it must be said, to unethical market analysts who write “market studies to order”. Firms like this certainly exist and in most cases, knowledgeable industry participants know exactly who these companies are.
In future posts (interrupted by posts from Phoenix, where I am headed to the ALFA conference on Sunday) I will address some of the ways market studies can go off the rails and what you should watch for. This is assuming of course, that you are interested in a market study that tells you the truth.
Tags: ALFA, Developers, Housing Development, Housing Options, Market Study, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing
Posted in Market Studies, News, Senior Housing | Comments Off
US Seniors’ Housing Conferences
Thursday, May 13th, 2010
I am heading off to Phoenix a week Sunday for the annual Assisted Living Federation of America (ALFA) conference. The last ALFA conference I went to was in San Diego in 2006. Since then I attended National Association of Homebuilder 55+ Housing Council conferences in Denver (2007) and New Orleans (2008). The NAHB conferences were focused exclusively on active adult housing for years but both Denver and New Orleans added a service-enriched stream. That was dropped in 2009. The whole conference was dropped in 2010, presumably because things are so bad in the US seniors’ housing industry, at least from the perspective of the NAHB. So it’s back to ALFA.
I will be posting regularly from the conference itself. In addition I am touring three projects and will post about those as well.
Tags: ALFA, Assisted Living, Conference, Housing Development, Housing Options, NAHB, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing
Posted in News, Senior Housing | Comments Off