Posts Tagged ‘Alberta’

What a Difference Four Years Makes

Thursday, June 10th, 2010

This week I am working in Stony Plain, a community of about 12,000 people 20 minutes west of the West Edmonton Mall, as these things are always described in the Edmonton area. It’s not where you are relative to downtown Edmonton, it’s where you are relative to the West Edmonton Mall.

On my way here I stopped off in Devon, a town of about 6,000 people midway between Stony Plain and the Edmonton International Airport. There are only 275 people over the age of 75 in Devon and yet there is a 61 unit supportive senior’s housing project (Discovery Place, The Heights) that has only one vacant unit. It is situations like this that keep market analysts humble.

But getting back to the topic of this blog, the current issue of the Edmonton Condo Guide includes a handy chart comparing year-to-date statistics for the four year period between April 2006 and April 2010. In terms of the sales-to-listing ratio, the trough over that period was in 2008, when the ratio was 37% compared to an astonishing 91% in 2006. Things have improved since 2008, but in the first four months of 2010 there were 12,365 listings on the Edmonton MLS compared to 5,645 sales. That’s a long way from the heady days of 2006—7,779 listings; 7,100 sales.

You can see the evidence of the hangover everywhere in Stony Plain. “Immediately available condos”, “condo units for rent”, “move in now”—signs like this are common. It’s nothing like Phoenix, but it is a bit unsettling all the same.

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Posted in Marketing, Senior Housing, Seniors' Housing | Comments Off

Alberta, not BC, is Canada’s Retirement Magnet for Seniors

Tuesday, May 4th, 2010

Here is a chart that surprises almost everyone who sees it. Over the 10 year period between 1998 and 2008, Alberta attracted and retained considerably more interprovincial migrants than BC. The numbers come from Canada Revenue Agency records.

Interprovincial Migration of Seniors 1998 - 2008

Interprovincial Migration of Seniors 1998 - 2008

Note that we are talking here about NET migration, in minus out. The net figures are interesting but the detailed in and out comparisons are just as interesting, perhaps even more so.  As an example, about the same number of people moved to BC and Alberta over this period, but more left BC than left Alberta.

We will return to the subject in later posts but after having spent a great deal of time thinking about this apparent conundrum, we have come to the conclusion that the two major reasons for the ascendancy of Alberta are 1) much greater job creation, at least until the recent recession and 2) lower cost of living. Of course seniors aren’t moving to Alberta in search of jobs, but their kids (and grandkids) are. As for the cost of living, we have charted some amazing differences between the two provinces but overall, it’s probably about 25% cheaper to live in Alberta than in BC if you are over the age of 65.

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