Archive for August, 2010

Baby Boomers Crippling the Health System?

Thursday, August 26th, 2010

You might have noticed the recent story in the newspaper about boomers crippling the health system.  It was based on a poll commissioned by the Canadian Medical Association. The headline on the story in the Globe and Mail was “Most fear boomers will cripple health system”.

After reading the story and thinking about the poll results, I can only conclude that the headline writer didn’t actually read the story, which was written by Andre Picard, a very good reporter. One of the concerns suggested by the poll was this—“the health system will not be able to offer the same level of coverage as the baby boom generation reaches retirement age”. 34% of the poll respondents were very concerned about that, 45% were somewhat concerned and the rest weren’t concerned.

Put another way, 65% of the poll respondents were either not concerned or only somewhat concerned about the central question. How does this translate into fearing that the boomers will cripple the health system?

64% of the poll respondents were not concerned or only somewhat concerned that they might have to pay more taxes to provide health services to the baby boom generation. 67% were not concerned or only somewhat concerned about not having enough money to maintain their health as they grow older.

It was a ridiculous headline.

And here are two more ridiculous headlines, on the subject of the abandonment of the long form Census by Stephen Harper (note: not the Stephen Harper government—that is a redundancy): the story in the Vancouver Sun is headlined “Acting StatsCan chief slams voluntary census”. The same story in the Globe and Mail on the same day is headlined “Voluntary survey will still be useful, acting Statscan chief says”.

Stats Can keeps repeating (no doubt under orders) that the voluntary survey “can meet the needs of many users”.  What I would like to know is: who are these users? The voluntary survey is not going to meet the needs of my company or our industry.

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Life Lease Legislation

Tuesday, August 24th, 2010

I was working on something to do with life lease the other day and googled an article by an Ontario lawyer named John Clark. The article is called Life Lease Residential Housing: Is it Time for Legislation? So far Manitoba is the only province that has enacted legislation dealing with life leases, although other provinces have thought about it and two (BC and Ontario) have had a public consultation processes. Nothing happened in either province as a result of the consultation and it seems unlikely that anything will, at least for the foreseeable future.

The conclusion of the Clark article is that yes, legislation would be a good thing, notwithstanding the concern of many in the industry that legislation might be too restrictive—might harm the innovative and flexible approach to life leases that is now the operational context. And in fact I have talked to knowledgeable people in Manitoba who say that that is exactly what happened in that province—innovation and creativity were stifled as a result of the legislation.

Mr. Clark supports legislation for the consumer protection elements it would presumably provide, specifically in relation to the safety of purchaser deposits, financial and management disclosure, construction insurance, the freedom to register a life lease interest at land titles, and the freedom to sublet.

In BC, these consumer protection mechanisms already exist, not through specific life lease legislation but through the Real Estate Development Marketing Act.

Mr. Clark also muses that perhaps life lease development ought to be restricted to the not-for-profit sector and that governments might want to think about assisting the life lease development process in some way—via loan guarantees and incentives for developers and residents for example—because that would be a relatively inexpensive way for governments to contribute to the development of affordable housing.

In all provinces, except Alberta, life lease has evolved as a creature of the not-for-profit sector. There are very few for-profit life leases, mostly because for-profit developers prefer to get in and out as fast as possible. For-profit life leases operate primarily in the service-enriched market.

We will be posting more about life leases in the weeks to come. It is a particular passion of Lumina’s.

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Sun City Arizona is 50 Years Old

Friday, August 20th, 2010

That seems almost impossible to believe.  Not so much its age per se, but the fact that it was built when the median age in the US was 29.5 and the oldest baby boomer was 14. Today the median age is 36.7 and the oldest boomer is 64. Del Webb died in 1974. I don’t know if anyone has written a biography of him but it would certainly be interesting to ask him how he came up with the vision of enormous retirement communities when the US was comparatively so youthful. Wikipedia notes his many accomplishments, but doesn’t touch on this subject. The entry does note though that on opening day, 100,000 people came to check out Sun City–so many that Del Webb had to survey the scene via helicopter.

In 2010, more than 40,000 people, 98% of them white, live in Sun City, which contains seven recreation centres,  eight golf courses, three country clubs, two bowling centres, an amphitheatre and a lake—the largest concentration of year-round recreational facilities in the United States. According to the 2000 census, 80% of the population of Sun City was over the age of 65. The median age is 75, twice the national median of 36.7.

These are staggering statistics. The oldest mid-sized urban area in Canada is Parksville, BC, on the eastern coast of Vancouver Island. Compared to Sun City, Parksville is positively youthful—only 34% of the population is over 65. Perhaps because of this comparative youthfulness, not many developers of golf course communities have been drawn to the Parksville area, notwithstanding its assumed appeal for retirees and seniors. The closest golf course community is Fairwinds, which offers “1,350 acres of living” consisting of one golf course, one marina, a community centre and 400 residential units. Arbutus Ridge is further south and a little bigger, with 600 residential units. The 830-acre Crown Isle Resort is an hour north of Fairwinds. And that’s basically it for active-adult type of communities in what is usually considered the epicentre of retirement living in Canada.

I wonder what Del Webb would make of that.

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Thoughts on Homecare for Seniors

Tuesday, August 17th, 2010

My 87 year old mother recently spent 2 weeks with us (sorry for letting my posting slip somewhat). Near the end of her visit my son asked me how long I thought she would be able to continue living independently.  She moved from the family home into an apartment eight years ago. It’s not a seniors’ apartment and she still drives. She has all her mental faculties, takes almost no drugs, and does not use any kind of mobility device, although she can’t walk long distances and she shuffles a bit because she is afraid of falling.

So: a very independent senior you might conclude and you would be half right. She IS very independent but only because my three siblings live in the same city she does and they help her a lot. My sister does all her grocery shopping for example. My brothers do various maintenance tasks for her. Without that kind of help her life would be difficult, perhaps too difficult to allow her to remain at home, where she wants to be.

My mother is fortunate to have children close by who do these things for her. But what about people who don’t have kids close by? And, what about the boomers, who, typically, have had fewer children than their parents?

One solution is virtual retirement communities. We have posted about VRCs in earlier blogs and I am convinced they will become a prominent part of the landscape in years to come. Another is intentional communities. Someone I was talking to recently told me about a group of seniors who share the same caregiver. They all live in single family houses but not on the same street. The caregiver goes from one house to the next and is increasingly getting worn out. They have now decided that the obvious solution is for all of them to live together. And that indeed IS a good solution if they can get it off the ground fast enough.

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Help Required: Title for Book on Seniors’ Housing

Saturday, August 7th, 2010

As regular readings of this blog know, I am writing a book that will be published shortly (meaning in the next couple of months). It is currently titled The Future of Seniors’ Housing: Planning, Building and Operating Successful Seniors’ Housing Projects.

That is quite a dull title I admit. A book designer suggested I come up with a more exciting title and use the existing title as a sub-title. That is a great idea but the problem is I can’t think of a catchier title. If it were 2005 and not 2010 Silver Tsunami would be perfect but unfortunately about a million other people have used that phrase over the last several years. I tried a few variations on the golden theme but lots of people think “golden” should not be used in any context dealing with people over the age of 55. My personal favourite on the golden front is nursing homes that are called “Golden Door”. I think that’s hilarious although I probably wouldn’t be quite so amused if I were about to move into a Golden Door Nursing Home. You would have to work hard to avoid the implications.

And speaking of nursing homes I visited a friend of my mother’s yesterday who recently moved into a nursing home on account of a very weak heart. His heart may be weak but his sense of humour certainly isn’t. The monthly activity calendar on his wall listed “zucchini races” every Wednesday morning at 10:30. “What”, I asked, “are zucchini races?” Without missing a beat he said”I don’t know but it doesn’t matter anyway because I don’t think my zucchini is up to it.”

I am still chuckling about that. However the point of this post is not to share witticisms but to ask for your help in coming up with a catchy title for my book. If I use your idea I will certainly acknowledge your help in the book. Please try to avoid any metallic references.

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More Interesting Stuff from the Census We Will Never Know Again

Tuesday, August 3rd, 2010

As I have said before numerous times in this blog I believe that the changes the federal government is making to the 2011 Canadian Census by removing the mandatory long form are completely boneheaded. Here is another example of data that will no longer be available:

In Richmond, a suburb of Metro Vancouver, 40% of the 65+ households live in a condo. In New Westminster, another suburb, 61% do. Is that because it’s easier for seniors in New West to downsize? Proportionately, there are twice as many apartments in New West than there are in Richmond (another long form fact) so that’s one possible explanation. Another possible explanation could be that seniors in New West have lower incomes than seniors in Richmond and can’t afford to live in single detached houses. Here’s how that hypothesis pans out: the average income of 65+ households in Richmond is $52,385; in New West, $47,010. So that’s another possible explanation. Or perhaps 65+ households in New West are smaller and don’t need the space of a single detached house. And the facts? 57% of 65+ households in New West are non-family households, meaning most will be single person households. The comparable figure in Richmond is 38%.

Well who cares says Stephen Harper, Tony Clement, and the Fraser Institute.

Communities that want to become elder-friendly care. They need to understand the housing situation of people living in their communities now, as well as how the community can accommodate people who might move there in the future.

For-profit and not-for-profit developers of seniors’ housing care too. Spend $20 million on a housing project without understanding the market? Not wise. Hold on a minute though say SH, TC, and the FI, if they need that information they can darn well go and get it themselves. But they can’t—they won’t be able to replicate the comprehensiveness or the reliability of census data, even if they spend huge sums of money trying to do so.

Many people and companies of all sorts in the seniors’ housing and health care industry will be hobbled by the absence of the long form. The whole situation is, as I have said on earlier occasions, very sad.

If only more people read this blog! A Canadian Press story appearing on August 2nd opines that the Tories believe not enough people really care about the census and the whole thing will blow over. I hope that is not true.

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